Trading Instruments · Educational Tools
Calculators, grounded in the books.
Three tools built from real trading-book fundamentals. Not investment advice; every number here is yours to set.
Strategy expectancy comparison
Four strategy families drawn from the 20 trading models profiled on this site, each with an illustrative win-rate and reward:risk starting point — not a claim about any real track record. Adjust the sliders to see how expectancy responds.
Not sure which family fits your own behavior? Try the 20-scenario trade simulator →
Expectancy per trade, in R-multiples
Positive means the strategy makes money on average per trade at these inputs; taller bar is better.
| Family | Win rate | Reward:risk | Expectancy (R) |
|---|
Individual traders
Each of the 15 strategy traders, with an illustrative win-rate and reward:risk reviewed by hand before publishing — pick one to see a single simulated sequence of 30 trades at those odds.
Trend-following
Trading Model 01
This trading model's systematic approach with strict per-trade and account-level risk caps and multi-timeframe trend/momentum confirmation suggests a balanced win-rate with moderate reward:risk, aiming for consistency over high-frequency wins or extreme asymmetric payoffs.
Trading Model 14
The style emphasizes decisive action on high-conviction tape-reading setups, implying fewer but higher-quality trades with asymmetric payoffs.
Trading Model 15
This trading model's focus on chart patterns and relative strength suggests a balanced approach with moderate win rates and reward:risk, as the method aims to capture trends early but requires confirmation from price action.
Trading Model 18
Trend following with strict risk management typically involves a lower win rate due to frequent small losses, but higher reward:risk ratios from riding large trends when they occur.
Trading Model 19
Trend-following systems typically have lower win rates but higher reward:risk ratios due to letting winners run while cutting losses quickly.
Trading Model 20
This trading model's approach combines technical breakdowns (e.g., head-and-shoulders) and deteriorating fundamentals, suggesting a moderate win-rate with a higher reward:risk as short positions capitalize on accelerated downtrends after confirmation.
Trading Model 12
Trend following strategies typically have lower win rates but higher reward-to-risk ratios due to letting winners run and cutting losses quickly.
Momentum / breakout
Trading Model 08
Momentum trading with breakouts and pullbacks typically involves a balanced win rate with higher reward-to-risk ratios to capitalize on strong trends while managing losses through time stops and mark-to-market discipline.
Trading Model 09
Momentum trading with strict risk management suggests a balanced win-rate with a higher reward:risk to capitalize on strong trends while cutting losses quickly.
Trading Model 10
This trading model's focus on high-probability setups with volatility-contraction-style bases and confirmed long-term uptrends suggests a balanced win-rate with a moderate reward:risk, combining selective entry points with letting winners ride momentum.
Trading Model 07
The combination of quantitative analysis, relative strength, and volatility tools suggests a balanced approach that prioritizes optimized risk/reward ratios, leading to a moderate win rate with a moderately favorable reward-to-risk.
Trading Model 16
Cyclical trading focuses on timing entries and exits within stock-price cycles, suggesting a balanced win-rate with moderate reward:risk to capture cyclical moves while managing emotional selling risks.
Trading Model 03
Trading Model 03's focus on momentum, breakouts, and high-probability chart patterns suggests a moderately high win-rate with a balanced reward:risk, as these strategies often capture strong directional moves while managing risk through defined patterns.
Trading Model 04
Trading Model 04's focus on high-growth stocks with strong earnings acceleration and patience to hold winners for long-term moves suggests a moderate win rate with a higher reward:risk ratio, as the strategy likely involves letting winners run while cutting losses quickly.
Trading Model 11
Trading Model 11's momentum-based approach with breakouts and pyramiding suggests a moderate win rate balanced by a higher reward:risk ratio, as it aims to capitalize on extended trends while cutting losses quickly during failed breakouts.
Chart pattern / statistical
Trading Model 17
This trading model's focus on statistically-measured chart patterns suggests a moderate win-rate with a slightly favorable reward-to-risk ratio, as patterns provide defined entry/exit points but require room for stop-losses due to occasional false breakouts.
Trading Model 05
The eclectic, probability-driven approach with emphasis on patterns and expected value suggests a balanced win-rate and moderate reward:risk, favoring statistical edges over extreme asymmetry.
Day-trading / tape-reading
Trading Model 13
The focus on high-probability setups and tape reading suggests a moderate win rate with a slightly favorable reward:risk ratio, as the strategy aims to capitalize on statistically measured edges while managing risk.
Psychology — no strategy numbers apply
Two trading models profiled on this site aren't teaching a trading strategy at all — they're explaining why traders sabotage whichever strategy they use. No win-rate or reward:risk applies to their work, so they're never in the chart above.
Trading Model 02
Loss aversion & prospect theory — why a loss hurts roughly twice as much as an equivalent gain feels good, and how that bias drives traders to hold losers too long and sell winners too early.
Read the full profile →Trading Model 06
The mental game of trading — tilt, accumulated emotion, and the perfectionism trap that makes traders abandon a working plan under stress.
Read the full profile →